Since 2015, roughly 45% of NFL playoff teams fail to return to the postseason the next year. That means about six or seven teams qualify for the playoffs and then don’t make it back the following campaign.
So, we ask, who’s it going to be this year? These are our seven picks from 2025 playoff clubs that miss the tournament in 2026.
Recent Risers Face a Much Tougher Road in 2026
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers shockingly reached the postseason last year in the weak NFC South, and there’s no reason to believe that the division has markedly improved.
Too, Carolina checked in as the NFL’s 25th-best team per DVOA one year ago. That translated to eighth-worst. Think of it this way: based on the numbers, the Panthers were lucky to reach the dance. They won’t make it a sequel in 2026.
Chicago Bears
Speaking of DVOA, Chicago finished 16th in 2025 — smack dab in the middle. Its season was propped up by an epic playoff triumph over Green Bay, which should not be discounted. Finally conquering the Packers was a big deal.
Still, Chicago won oodles of close games last year, and when the Vikings pulled off the same magic trick in 2022, they regressed to the mean in 2023, winning just seven games and missing the playoffs.
That will happen to Chicago.
Denver Broncos
This article is not here to denigrate Denver. Hell, they reached the AFC Championship last year and might’ve been a Bo Nix injury away from the Super Bowl — or even winning it all.
Our theory here is that the Kansas City Chiefs will be back, resuming their dynastic tendencies, while the Los Angeles Chargers pester the Broncos.
Kansas City and Los Angeles will reach the postseason; Denver will narrowly miss out.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers basically gain the NFC’s seventh seed annually under quarterback Jordan Love. That’s fine, but it proves the club could be on the cusp of failing to qualify sooner rather than later. Green Bay lost oodles of players to free agency, and Micah Parsons probably won’t return until October or November.
Couple that with the competition level in the NFC North, and the Packers will finish 8-9 or 9-8, snatching the eighth seed, not their precious seventh.
USA Today‘s Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz recently noted, “With Parsons acknowledging he won’t return from a torn anterior cruciate ligament until at least mid-October, it’s clear that the Packers will have to navigate another season in which they’re not close to full strength.”
The Vikings might even take the Packers’ spot in the tournament.
New England Patriots
Drake Maye played buffoonishly in the AFC Championship and Super Bowl. Nobody really cared because New England overachieved in the first place. Yes, the Patriots added A.J. Brown via trade with the Philadelphia Eagles, and yes, the Patriots’ defense will play well in 2026.
But with head coach Mike Vrabel’s reputation a bit sullied, and with New England having one of the easiest schedules in NFL history last year, it will crash back to earth in 2026 and finish 8-9.
FOX Sports‘ Will Hill wrote in April, “The Patriots also notably had one of the easier schedules in league history last season, as their opponents had a combined winning percentage of .366, the lowest mark in the NFL since 1999. That will not only change this year but do so in dramatic fashion, as the Patriots will now battle a first-place schedule. “
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are due for a down season. Soon, their salary cap woes will come home to roost, and many have hinted this offseason that Jalen Hurts cannot faithfully operate a pass-happy offense. There’s something just not right about the Eagles.
Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys are hungry to reach the playoffs again, Jayden Daniel is back and healthy in the nation’s capital, and the New York Giants hired John Harbaugh.
The Eagles will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2020. It’s time.
Pittsburgh Steelers
It would just feel poetic if the Steelers suffered their first losing season in 20 years the moment Mike Tomlin left town. Aaron Rodgers is back, though, and he’ll distribute the ball among DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman, rookie Germie Bernard, along with running backs Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle.
The Steelers’ defense will remain formidable, but the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens will finish in first and second place in the AFC North, leaving the Steelers around 7-10 or 8-9 in third place.
Then, of course, Rodgers will hold everyone hostage with his 2027 offseason decision-making process, even though he has already announced that this season is his last. You know the drill.
