Kyler Murray Picked for Long Shot Award

No Minnesota Vikings player has won the MVP award since Adrian Peterson in 2012 — none have really come all that close since then — but according to NFL.com, there’s a chance that changes in 2026.

Bucky Brooks from that website named long-shot award winners last week, and the only MVP winner who emerged from his publication was Murray.

Murray’s MVP Buzz Turns a Cheap Vikings Bet into a Bigger Story

Kyler Murray throws near the sideline before a Cardinals-49ers game. — Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray throws near the sideline before kickoff against the San Francisco 49ers, getting loose for an NFC West road matchup on Nov. 7, 2021, at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California, as Arizona prepared for a physical divisional game without losing sight of Murray’s playmaking role. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports.

Brook: Murray Is the Main Long-Shot to Win MVP

Murray getting MVP consideration this early turned heads. Brooks explained, “The combination of Murray’s spectacular playmaking ability and Kevin O’Connell’s creative scheming could quickly remind the football world why this quarterback won the Heisman Trophy at Oklahoma and then went first overall in the 2019 NFL Draft.”

“Injuries have plagued the former Offensive Rookie of the Year in recent seasons, but Murray’s dual-threat skills should be enhanced by the Vikings’ playmakers and play designer. After watching KOC transform a struggling Sam Darnold into a Pro Bowler in 2024, I’m confident that the coaching wizard can help the ultra-talented Murray regain his magic in Minnesota.”

Darnold, too, posted MVP-style numbers in 2024 but crumbled when the lights were brightest.

Kyler Murray throws during a Cardinals playoff game against the Rams. — Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray throws during the second half of an NFC Wild Card playoff game against the Los Angeles Rams on Jan. 17, 2022, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, trying to extend plays as Arizona’s postseason hopes ran through a difficult road matchup against a familiar division rival. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports.

Brooks concluded, “Given the 28-year-old’s prowess as a dual-threat weapon, the Vikings could re-emerge with a potent offense to complement Brian Flores’ swarming D. If Murray makes Minnesota a true contender in a loaded NFC North, the eighth-year pro could add another major piece of football hardware to his mantel.”

What Has to Happen?

How can Murray snatch the league MVP award? It won’t be easy:

— Post 3,500 Passing Yards or More
— Record 35+ Total Touchdowns
— Avoid a Flurry of Turnovers
— Keep the Vikings Near the Top of the NFC North from Cover to Cover
— Reach the Postseason

If the Vikings won the NFC North and Murray started 15-17 games, his case would be enhanced.

MVP voters do not consider playoff performance at all, so Murray and his MVP peers must craft wonderful regular seasons. In short, Murray must stay healthy, thrive individually, and lead the Vikings to the playoffs. That’s the blueprint.

Vikings Don’t Even Need Murray to Post MVP Numbers

The Vikings’ offense, featuring Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, and T.J. Hockenson, is further bolstered by O’Connell’s adept playcalling, creating an ideal environment for any quarterback. Murray is stepping into a highly favorable situation, which is a sweet advantage.

Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson meet at midfield after a preseason game. — Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray meets Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson at midfield following the final whistle after preseason action between Arizona and Baltimore on Aug. 21, 2022, at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, bringing together two dynamic quarterbacks whose mobility and arm talent have shaped modern NFL conversations. Mandatory Credit: Joe Rondone/The Republic-USA TODAY NETWORK.

Murray’s role is pretty clear: he needs to execute the offense efficiently, protect the football, make big plays, and move the sticks on 3rd Down. Minnesota doesn’t require a superhuman effort from Murray. Instead, they need him to revert to his pre-controversy Arizona form — a quarterback who ranks in the NFL’s Top 15.

The parallels to Baker Mayfield are evident, too. Both were top draft picks who were ultimately released by their drafting teams. Mayfield revitalized his career in Tampa Bay through resilient, efficient play and by consistently taking high-percentage throws. Murray can replicate this success, with the added dimension of superior mobility and a greater capacity to create game-changing plays.

If Murray performs to his potential, the partnership could extend beyond a single season. His talent suggests he could be the Vikings’ long-term solution at quarterback. While Arizona moved on, Minnesota has presented him with an excellent opportunity to re-establish his career.

A to Z Sports‘ Tyler Foness noted on Murray this week, “You can do the classroom work and study the playbook at home, but applying it on the field helps ingrain a certain level of comfort.”

“That’s why you often hear about quarterbacks taking a major step in year three of a system, especially a West Coast offense as O’Connell runs. At that point, it often becomes second nature. Murray needs every possible rep to reach that point. Remember, this is about winning a Super Bowl in 2026, not worrying about the future.”

Murray doesn’t need to play like an MVP for Minnesota to excel; the Vikings need competence at the position. They finished last year with a winning record despite poor quarterback performance.

The True Frontrunners

In reality, Murray has around a +5000 probability of winning MVP. Here’s the “real” list, according to sportsbooks: