As A.J. Preller’s moves again eat into Padres’ draft pool, homework is key

For a seamhead, Chris Kemp can’t get enough homework.

So he made the most of the interview windows at last month’s draft combine in Phoenix, where over a five-day period the Padres lined up some 120 half-hour meet-and-greets in the suites overlooking the diamond at Chase Field.

Minor league pitching coordinator James Keller joined scouts for pockets of pitching prospects. Special assistants Allen Craig and A.J. Ellis cycled in and out throughout days that went from 8 a.m. to 8 pm.

Long days to be sure — although that’s not how Kemp, a constant in the room, views any of it.

“It’s fun,” the Padres’ vice president of amateur and international scouting said.

He added: “I think getting as much information you can, meeting with as many players as you can, you’re looking for an edge, right? And I think the more information you have and meeting with a lot of players might give us a bit of an advantage.”

The Padres need all the advantages they can get in this year’s draft, which begins Sunday afternoon.

For the fourth time in the last four seasons, the Padres sit in the back fifth of the draft order. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller’s big-league machinations have eaten into Kemp’s checkbook for a third straight year, resulting in a $6.57 bonus pool that ranks below everyone but the Mets ($5.47 million) and the Yankees ($5.38 million).

Consider it the cost of business, and vying for a fourth postseason berth in the last six years is good for business.

“Anytime we’re making a move to get an All-Star to (make) this team better, keep 40,000 coming in here every night, if we lose a pick or lose some draft pool money, I don’t care,” Kemp said. “We’ll find depth and draft guys. It’s a good challenge. We like it.”

Three years ago, signing Xander Bogaerts cost the Padres their second- and fifth-round picks as a luxury tax payer. They recouped some of last year’s draft pool money as a repeat offender via qualifying offers to the departing Blake Snell and Josh Hader. This year, they signed Nick Pivetta — who rejected a qualifying offer from the Boston Red Sox — after getting under the luxury tax last season, so the penalty isn’t quite as stiff.

Just their second-round pick.

Meaning the Padres pick 25th overall on Sunday and then not again until pick No. 99.

It’s an area of the draft that makes it rather difficult to predict just where the Padres will go, unless you’re aware of their draft history.

The Padres haven’t selected a college player with their first selection since drafting Stanford pitcher Cal Quantrill with the eighth overall pick in 2016.

Organizations also don’t draft for need as they do in other sports, but the Padres have a lot of needs.

Again, that’s a product for the way the Padres do business under Preller. Six of the first seven first-rounders of the Preller era have been traded away since that first postseason push in the summer of 2020.

The one that they held onto (Jackson Merrill) was an All-Star last year and a runner-up for the NL Rookie of the Year.

But they included three first-rounders (MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams and Robert Hassell III) in the 2022 trade for Juan Soto. Two of those prospects developed into All-Stars for the Nationals as did a second-rounder in James Wood, who will compete Monday in the Home Run Derby.

Beyond that blockbuster, Preller has dipped into the farm system so often — for Dylan Cease, Luis Arraez, Jason Adam and Tanner Scott, last year alone — that only 11 of the system’s top-30 prospects as rated by MLB.com have progressed to Double-A San Antonio or higher.

And the only hitters in that group are injured catcher Ethan Salas and first baseman Romeo Sanabria.

That’s all part of the calculus — “this group of guys could be here quick vs. hey, this group might be a long play,” Kemp said — as the scouting department convened this week at Petco Park to draw up their board.

What Preller does with the players picked down the road is also part of the game.

“We just want to keep the momentum rolling, keep creating value,” Kemp said. “Whether it’s a guy like Jackson that gets here or it’s a guy that ends up in a trade that helps us get a Jason Adam or more All-Stars (like) Luis Arraez, it’s fun.

“We’re ready for anything.”

2025 MLB amateur draft

Padres’ bonus pool: $6.57 million
First pick: 25th overall ($3.61 million)
How to watch: Rounds 1-3, 3 p.m. Sunday (ESPN/MLBN/MLB.com); Rounds 4-20, 8:30 a.m. Monday (MLB.com)

Padres first-round history under A.J. Preller

2024 (25th): LHP Kash Mayfield (high school)
2023 (25th): OF Dillon Head (high school)
2022 (15th): RHP Dylan Lesko (high school)
2021 (27th): SS Jackson Merrill (high school)
2020 (8th): OF Robert Hassell III (high school)
2019 (6th): SS CJ Abrams (high school)
2018 (7th): LHP Ryan Weathers (high school)
2017 (3rd): LHP MacKenzie Gore (high school)
2016 (8th): RHP Cal Quantrill (college)
2015: Did not have a first-rounder

Mock Central

A look at whom the industry believes the Padres will draft with the 25th overall pick:

Baseball America

OF Slater de Brun (Summitt HS, Ore.)

“He’s undersized at 5-foot-9, 190 pounds, but has a strong tool set and a similar overall profile to recent speedy, first-round outfielders such as Slade Caldwell, Braylon Payne and Dillon Head. While de Brun isn’t physically imposing, he has done a nice job adding strength to his frame over the last two years.”

ESPN

SS Kayson Cunningham (Johnson HS, Texas)

“Whether Cunningham sticks at shortstop or winds up at second base, he has one of the best hit tools in the draft, and San Diego, as much as any team, loves players with great hit tools, from Luis Arraez to Jackson Merrill. Cunningham can run, too, and his well-rounded offensive profile makes up for a lack of physicality (5-foot-9, 170 pounds). His age, 19 on draft day, hurts him in teams’ models, but that’s also how a player of this caliber drops to the bottom of the first round.”

MLB.com

OF Slater de Brun (Summitt HS, Ore.)

“De Brun’s speed is also a huge asset in the outfield. He has plus range and is an excellent defender who can play center field for a long time. Teams will want to be convinced the Vanderbilt recruit can impact the ball enough in the spring, but those who believe in him as a future table-setter will consider de Brun in the same area as Caldwell and Carroll.”

The Athletic’s Keith Law

3B Xavier Neyens (Mount Vernon HS, Wash.)

“AJ Preller has long talked about liking ‘loud tools,’ and Neyens’ power is some of the loudest on the high school side. I think they’d take (Steele) Hall or (Kruz) Schoolcraft if either got here. I would be surprised if they took a college player, of course.”