Kevin O’Connell Faces a Year 5 Test Few Coaches Reach

The Minnesota Vikings hired head coach Kevin O’Connell in 2022, and this September, he will embark on his fifth season as the guy in charge — without a playoff win. That’s somewhat rare in the NFL and a signal that the Vikings’ ownership just loves the man.

It’s happened before, but as a whole, most coaches entering Year No. 5 have already won in the postseason.

Vikings Regular Season Success Needs a January Payoff

Kevin O’Connell talks to Brian Flores during a Vikings media session at TCO Performance Center. — Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell introduces defensive coordinator Brian Flores during a media session at the TCO Performance Center in Eagan. Flores outlined his defensive philosophy and vision after joining the organization, bringing extensive NFL experience to Minnesota’s coaching staff. Captured in July 2024, the event marked the beginning of a significant partnership. Mandatory Credit: YouTube.

Recent Example of HCs with No Playoff Wins in First 4 Seasons

In modern NFL history, only a handful of coaches have survived long enough to begin Year No. 5 with the same organization without a playoff win on their resume.

These are the examples from the last 45 years:

Jeff Fisher (Rams)
Dick Jauron (Bears)
Jim Schwartz (Lions)
Jack Del Rio (Jaguars)
Sam Wyche (Bengals)
David Shula (Bengals)
Dan Reeves (Broncos)
Marvin Lewis (Bengals)
Dennis Green (Vikings)
Dave Wannstedt (Bears)
Kevin O’Connell (Vikings)
Norv Turner (Commanders)

Ironically, Dennis Green began his career the same way, and he stuck around the Twin Cities until 2001.

How Those Coaches Fared in Year No. 5

How did those coaches fare in their fifth campaign — which is where O’Connell is at right now? A mixed bag.

Jeff Fisher: 4-9 (Fired Midseason)
Dick Jauron: 7-9 (Fired)
Jim Schwartz: 7-9 (Fired)
Jack Del Rio: 11-5 (Divisional Round)
Sam Wyche: Reached Super Bowl
David Shula: 1-6 (Fired Midseason)
Dan Reeves: 11-5 (No Playoffs)
Marvin Lewis: 7-9 (Fired)
Dennis Green: 9-7 (Playoff Loss)
Dave Wannstedt: 4-12 (Retained)
Norv Turner: 6-10 (Retained)
Kevin O’Connell: We Shall See.

Wyche had the peak of a Super Bowl appearance with the Cincinnati Bengals, losing to the San Francisco 49ers in 1988. Fisher, Jauron, Schwartz, and Lewis were fired. The average? Coaches without a playoff win, venturing into Year No. 5, typically finish around 8-9 (scaled to a 17-game season), which is ironic because the Vikings are forecast to win 8.5 games by sportsbooks.

Hot Seat for O’Connell?

O’Connell has had a commendable four-year tenure as head coach of the Vikings, guiding them to the playoffs twice. However, the crucial hurdle remains: the absence of a postseason victory. Playoff wins are the ultimate measure of a head coach, and the Vikings haven’t secured one in six years, dating back to Kyle Rudolph’s memorable catch against the New Orleans Saints.

Kevin O’Connell speaks with KFAN host Dan Barreiro after Vikings training camp practice. — Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell speaks with KFAN’s Dan Barreiro following a training camp practice at the TCO Performance Center. O’Connell discussed roster development, team expectations, and preparations for the upcoming season. Recorded on July 31, 2024, the interview provided insight into Minnesota’s direction entering another important campaign. Mandatory Credit: YouTube.

O’Connell’s coaching record also boasts several high points. He was named NFL Coach of the Year in 2024, and his winning percentage since 2022 ranks fifth in the league. Furthermore, his defense has been exceptional, leading the NFL in EPA/play over the same period. His teams also demonstrate remarkable discipline, accumulating the sixth-fewest penalties since his arrival. It’s a long way saying that O’Connell isn’t running a clown show. The Vikings are good on his watch.

Supporters of O’Connell often advocate for providing him with a consistent starting quarterback and improved draft selections. His teams perform exceptionally well, achieving a 37-15 record (.711 winning percentage) when his primary quarterback is healthy. Unfortunately, former general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s draft misses have compounded the challenges.

Despite these obstacles, O’Connell has successfully cultivated a winning culture. The next step — obviously — is to translate that culture into tangible success, as Minnesota is in dire need of victories in January.

O’Connell probably isn’t on the hot seat at this specific moment, but an emphatic losing season could change that in a hurry.

A Roster for His Breakthrough Year?

The Vikings’ roster should have all the trimmings for a playoff win — if one assumes that Kyler Murray will click with the offense. Minnesota’s offense is known for complexity, so Murray, a seven-year veteran, must grasp it sooner rather than later for O’Connell to achieve his optimal scenario.

The defense is already there; Brian Flores’ group has finished in the NFL’s Top 3 per EPA/Play and DVOA in back-to-back seasons. The Vikings also used their 1st-Round pick in April on Caleb Banks, who has All-Pro upside if his injury concerns fade.

Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell before a game against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. — Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell walks the sideline before a road matchup against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. O’Connell continued guiding one of the NFC’s most competitive teams while managing growing expectations around the franchise. Captured on Dec. 14, 2025, the image reflects his leadership ahead of another pivotal contest. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images.

And the weaponry is available for O’Connell and Murray. Most teams don’t have the personnel caliber of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, and T.J. Hockenson as pass-catchers.

Some rosters don’t have the juice for a playoff win prognostication — the Miami Dolphins, Arizona Cardinals, and Cleveland Browns, for example. The Vikings aren’t like that.

It’s time for O’Connell to secure his elusive playoff triumph. After that, fans will hope his coaching and roster are enough to beat the Los Angeles Rams, who feel like a superteam from a summer standpoint.