Another Sweet Vikings Prediction Rolls In

Sportsbooks expect the Minnesota Vikings to finish in last place inside the NFC North this season, but ESPN came along this week and threw a wrench into that plan, claiming Minnesota will top the Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, and Chicago Bears to win the divison.

It came as part of a group of “bold predictions” from Benjamin Solak, with Minnesota winning the NFC North for the first time in four years.

Brian Flores Gives Vikings Cleanest Chance to Win the NFC North

Eric Wilson celebrates after a defensive stop against the Falcons. Vikings NFC North prediction — Minnesota Vikings linebacker Eric Wilson (55) celebrates after a defensive play against the Atlanta Falcons at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on Sep. 14, 2025, energizing the home crowd after a key first-half stop as Minnesota’s defense worked to control tempo during early-season NFC action under Brian Flores’ direction that afternoon. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images.

Solak’s Bold Take

Solak unveiled 10 bold predictions on Wednesday, and the Vikings were represented. He wrote, “The Vikings will win the NFC North. If the Vikings’ defense remains a needle-moving unit, then a functional offense could return them to their 2024 status under QB Sam Darnold. Minnesota went 14-3 that year, losing the division in Week 17 to the Lions.”

“It’s unreasonable to expect another 14 wins in a division this tough, but Kyler Murray easily has the requisite talent to improve on Minnesota’s 9-8 season in 2025. Kevin O’Connell’s aptitude for adjusting his offense to his quarterback remains one of the league’s more impressive skills. It wasn’t just the Darnold year. He did it for Joshua Dobbs as a midseason trade acquisition in 2023.”

Minnesota stumbled into Murray in March for $1.3 million when the Arizona Cardinals released him.

“He did it for McCarthy last season, giving him far more out-breaking routes than he had given other passers. I have questions about the Vikings’ offensive line and running game, and Murray’s inconsistencies might prove too much for the offense to be truly trustworthy,” Solak continued.

“But I’m confident O’Connell will set him up for success, and Murray has huge earning potential on the free agent market in 2027. He’ll be motivated to perform.’

How It Could Happen

Here’s the easy way to agree with Solak’s take:

The Vikings’ defense ranks second-best in the NFL since Flores arrived in 2023. The defense will be there, and it will be good. Even if the group regressed a bit without Jonathan Greenard, who was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles in April, it likely won’t fall out of the Top 10.
Minnesota has the weapons: Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, T.J. Hockenson, Aaron Jones, and Jordan Mason. Most teams don’t have weapons of that caliber.
Last season, the Vikings needed competent quarterback productivity. They didn’t get it. But they still finished with a 9-8 record. A competent Murray can drive the win total from nine to at least 11.

And there’s O’Connell. He enters Year No. 5 as a head coach with zero playoff wins. To a degree, he must win now or risk being put on the hot seat.

Why It May Not

What if Solak’s bold prognosication is wrong, and the Vikings finish closer to the NFC North basement than the pinnacle? It will mean that Murray did not take off in Minnesota, and his teammate, J.J. McCarthy, didn’t do much of anything, either.

Dianna Russini interviews Kevin O’Connell during Vikings training camp. Vikings NFC North prediction — The Athletic’s Senior NFL Insider Dianna Russini interviews Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell for an exclusive conversation in Eagan, Minnesota, on Aug. 15, 2025, discussing his Coach of the Year season and Minnesota’s next steps as training camp carried heavy focus on the team’s quarterback plan under a national spotlight that summer. Mandatory Credit: YouTube.

The defense, too, would have to drop off further than most envision. Perhaps All-Pro kicker Will Reichard would lose some of his magic in this doomsday scenario.

Missing the playoffs would basically feel like a redo of last year — a competitive NFC North too tough to crack and an offense that never hit a groove.

That’s really the only blueprint for non-success.

At Least Reach the Postseason

Since his arrival in 2022, O’Connell’s winning percentage ranks among the league’s best. He even secured the NFL Coach of the Year award in 2024, and under his leadership, the Vikings have invariably performed as a legitimate contender.

Minnesota has played disciplined football under O’Connell, complemented by Flores’ powerhouse defense. Unlike teams influenced by poor coaching, the Vikings have played at a high level.

However, the next challenge is clear: O’Connell needs a playoff win. While he has proven capable of building a winning team from September to January, the benchmark has shifted to sustaining that success into January football.

Aaron Jones fights through contact against the Bears. Vikings NFC North prediction — Minnesota Vikings running back Aaron Jones (33) fights through contact as Chicago Bears defender Dominique Robinson (90) brings him down at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on Dec. 16, 2024, during third-quarter action while Jones handled a heavy late-season workload and Minnesota evaluated its backfield plans for another pivotal offseason. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images.

Beyond that, expectations will evolve further. Can Minnesota defeat a formidable opponent like the Los Angeles Rams? Can O’Connell’s offense deliver on such a grand stage? Those questions set the stage for a compelling 2026 season. O’Connell has earned trust, but he has reached a point where that trust requires a January payoff.

Should the Vikings fail to qualify for the postseason, fans will undoubtedly be scrutinizing Black Monday for potential changes, including O’Connell. It’s the nature of the beast.

But according to Solak, they’ll win the division, and that’ll be that.