The Auburn Tigers (3-3) are officially reeling. After starting the season 3-0 in the non-conference, Hugh Freeze’s squad has dropped three in a row to begin SEC play with each loss coming in equally brutal fashion. The Tigers will need to turn into goldfish if they hope to save their season this week, as No. 16 ranked Missouri (5-1) enters Jordan Hare primed to make a run at an SEC Championship.

Both squads are coming off a heartbreaking game a week ago, with Auburn suffering another emotionally deflating loss at home against Georgia and Missouri watching an upset bid slip through their claws against Alabama. The losses have both teams desperate for a win, albeit for different reasons, entering Saturday on the Plains.

While Missouri enters its first road contest of the season with a superior record than Auburn, sports books currently have this game tabbed as essentially a pick em, with the visiting Tigers holding a slight 1.5-point spread advantage on BetMGM. ESPN FPI also also sees the contest as even, as the model gives Missouri a 53.6% chance to start the road portion of its schedule undefeated.

Will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show one of these teams has a bigger advantage than experts believe? As always, we’ll start with the quarterbacks.

Missouri quarterback Beau Pribula is not only the best quarterback in Saturday’s contest, but one of the most talented signal-callers in the conference as well. After sitting behind Drew Allar and accepting a red zone, gadget, type role with Penn State during his first two years as a college quarterback, Pribula has blossomed into a lethal passer with the Tigers.

The York, PA native has thrown for 1,370 yards and 11 touchdowns this season while rushing for 182 yards and 4 more scores. Despite throwing 5 interceptions, the senior holds the 22nd best QBR in the country and has essentially become the player Hugh Freeze had hoped Jackson Arnold would become in his first year with a new team.

Arnold, who started off his season in electric fashion, as fizzled over the past month. A crucial fumble completely derailed his offense in last week’s loss, although the junior did score rushing touchdown for the second week in a row. The problem lies through the air however, where Auburn’s QB1 has failed to reach 150 yards passing in two straight games.

As for the remainder of the offenses, things are much more even, although Missouri also holds the advantage. The pass catching rooms are a wash, with Eric Singleton Jr., Cam Coleman, and Malcolm Simmons building almost exactly the same three-headed monster that Missouri features with wide receivers Kevin Coleman Jr. and Marquis Johnson along with tight end Brett Norfleet.

Missouri’s advantage lies on the ground, where running back Ahmad Hardy enters a personal revenge game with 782 yards and 9 touchdowns on the ground. Hardy rushed for a very respectable 60 yards and a touchdown when he visited the Plains as a ULM Warhawk in 2024, and he could very well double that production on a much better team a year later. Auburn’s Jeremiah Cobb has been above average (453 yards, 4 touchdowns) in a surprisingly large role, but Hardy is clearly the better back.

Auburn’s saving grace comes on the defensive side of the football, where they hold a decisive advantage over Missouri. The No. 16 ranked visitors have yet to allow less than 20 points against a Power 4 opponent despite playing every game at home. On the other side, Auburn enters Saturday allowing just 20 points per game through 3 SEC games, with two coming on the road.

All in all, Missouri has a clear offensive advantage in this contest that may become slimmer if the Tigers become rattled in their first road game of the season. Jordan-Hare Stadium is not an easy place to play, but Missouri has enough talent to overcome the inevitable early jitters. Hugh Freeze’s team has a golden opportunity to win this game, but Missouri is righfully favored.

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This article originally appeared on Auburn Wire: Tale of the Tape: Auburn vs. Missouri